We study contextual bandits in the stochastic i.i.d.\ setting, where a learner observes contexts drawn from an unknown distribution, selects actions from a finite set $A$, and aims to identify an approximately optimal policy from a given class based on bandit feedback. Motivated by bandit multiclass classification with zero-one rewards, we focus on the \emph{$s$-sparse} setting in which, for every context, the reward vector has $L_1$-norm at most $s \ll |A|$. Our main result is the design of algorithms that, with high probability, output an $ε$-optimal policy compared to policy class $Π$ using $\tilde{O} ((s/ε^2 + |A|/ε)\log |Π|/δ)$ samples. We extend this bound to general Natarajan classes and complement it with a matching lower bound (up to logarithmic factors), thereby closing a substantial gap left by prior work (Erez et al., 2024, 2025), which incurred an additional $Θ(|A|^9)$ dependence. We obtain these results via two complementary approaches. First, we analyze contextual bandits through the lens of contextual decision making with structured observations, designing an exploration-by-optimization algorithm whose sample complexity is governed by the \emph{decision-estimation coefficient} (DEC; Foster et al., 2021, 2022). We show that, with $s$-sparse rewards, the induced model class admits a sharp DEC bound that scales with $s$ and directly yields the optimal rate. Since this approach is largely information-theoretic and involves solving complex min-max optimization problems, we also develop a second, more specialized algorithmic method based on a low-variance exploration technique. This approach leads to concrete, tractable algorithms and naturally extends to contextual combinatorial semi-bandits, leading to improved sample complexity guarantees for bandit multiclass list classification.

We study the Lipschitz bandit problem, where a learner sequentially maximizes an unknown Lipschitz function $f$ over a domain $\mathcal{X} \subset [0,1]^d$ using noisy pointwise evaluations. Existing regret bounds are either worst-case, scaling as $\tildeΘ \left ( T^{d+1/d+2}\right )$, or adaptive via the zooming dimension $d_z$, yielding $\tildeΘ \left ( T^{d_z+1/d_z+2}\right )$. However, such zooming-based guarantees are only partially instance-dependent, as they depend solely on the asymptotic growth of near-optimal level sets and fail to capture finer structural properties of $f$. We provide an analysis and an algorithm that characterizes the regret through integrals of the suboptimality gap of $f$ over its level sets. This yields regret bounds that adapt to the local growth of level sets, rather than only their asymptotic behavior. As a corollary, when the set of maximizers has dimension $d^\star>0$, we obtain improved adaptive rates of order $\tilde{\mathcal{O}} \left ( T^{d_z+1 / \max(d_z,d^\star)+2}\right )$ strictly improving over classical zooming bounds in this regime. Finally, we extend our analysis to the full-information setting (Lipschitz experts) and show how some of the regularity assumptions can be relaxed.

Card payment fraud detection is usually framed as a supervised classification problem. Although this approach has generated practical progress, improvement has remained incremental despite major advances in model architecture. We argue that this is not mainly a failure of function approximation or optimization, but a consequence of structural information impairments inherent to the payment ecosystem. We formalize card authorization as a sequential decision problem with delayed, censored, corrupted, and counterfactually missing feedback. We derive a minimax regret lower bound showing that these impairments enter multiplicatively in the denominator of the achievable learning rate. The bound implies that improving issuer reporting quality or reducing censorship can yield larger reductions in the regret floor than increasing model complexity. We also show that heterogeneity across issuers worsens learnability beyond what average impairment rates suggest. The paper contributes a theory of why fraud detection in payment networks is fundamentally harder than in standard online learning settings, identifies ecosystem information quality as the key bottleneck, and provides a theoretical basis for prioritizing investments in reporting infrastructure, dispute process quality, and selective exploration. The paper is theory-first and does not rely on proprietary transaction data.

This paper studies adaptive targeting under network interference in a bandit setting, where treatments applied to one individual may affect others through spillover effects. We consider a linear model in a sparse regime, where each individual's outcome can be affected by at most a few others. We first establish a regret lower bound showing that ignoring the network structure and reducing the problem to a standard linear bandit inevitably leads to inefficient learning, particularly in large populations. To understand how structural information can be leveraged, we analyze regimes with varying levels of knowledge of the interference structure: (1) full support knowledge, (2) knowledge of the column support sizes, and (3) no prior knowledge. For each regime, we establish regret lower bounds characterizing the fundamental limits of learning, and develop algorithms that achieve near-optimal regret. Together, our results provide a unified view of how knowledge of the interference structure governs the efficiency of online learning under interference, and offer practical adaptive targeting algorithms in each setting. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the practical benefits of our algorithms.

Traditional insurance pricing relies on risk-based principles that ensure actuarial fairness and solvency but do not explicitly account for policyholders' price sensitivity. We formulate insurance pricing as a decision-making problem and study it using tools from off-policy evaluation and stochastic control. We propose a kernelized inverse propensity score estimator that exploits local structure in the action space and yields variance reduction compared to the classical inverse propensity score estimator. Building on these value estimates, we investigate policy optimization and present two practical approaches for computing optimal pricing rules: an interpretable data-shared Lasso formulation and a flexible policy parameterization based on neural networks. Using a controlled synthetic travel insurance environment, we empirically confirm the theoretical results and show that neural networks outperform existing techniques for policy optimization.

Collaborative analysis of decentralized confidential datasets is important, but direct sharing of original datasets is often restricted by privacy and institutional constraints. Data collaboration (DC) analysis transforms each dataset into privacy-preserving intermediate representations via party-specific obfuscation functions and integrates them into common collaboration representations using an anchor dataset. However, many existing DC analysis methods rely on linear transformations for data obfuscation and integration, which may increase reconstruction risk. Although nonlinear dimensionality reduction can mitigate this risk, conventional linear integration methods cannot accurately align intermediate representations produced by nonlinear transformations. Moreover, existing integration methods mainly minimize discrepancies among parties and do not explicitly incorporate geometric or target-variable information useful for downstream analysis. To overcome these limitations, we first formulate linear kernel integration (LKI) as a linear integration method and then kernelize it to obtain nonlinear kernel integration (NKI). NKI admits a globally optimal solution via kernel ridge regression and an eigenvalue problem. We also introduce graph regularization and a centering constraint so that the target representation can capture geometric and target-variable information useful for downstream analysis. Experiments on image classification tasks demonstrate that NKI improves classification accuracy over existing linear integration methods under nonlinear dimensionality reduction, with further gains from target-variable-aware graph regularization and centering. The results also show that dimensionality reduction choices substantially affect both classification accuracy and reconstruction risk.

Multicalibration extends classical calibration by requiring predictions to be unbiased over a rich collection of functions, encompassing both prediction slices and subpopulations. It has emerged as a powerful framework for fairness, robustness, and reliable prediction, yet the theoretical understanding of multicalibration boosting (MCBoost) remains fragmented and often relies on restrictive assumptions. In this work, we develop a unified and refined perspective on MCBoost that subsumes existing variants, including multiaccuracy, BatchGCP, and BatchMVP. We uncover several phenomena that provide new insights into its practical behavior: even highly accurate and flexible predictors can remain substantially miscalibrated; enforcing multicalibration introduces a calibration-risk trade-off; and early stopping plays a central role in controlling this trade-off. On the theoretical side, we establish a general framework for MCBoost under weaker and more realistic conditions. We show that the boosting iterates converge to a Bregman projection of the population-optimal predictor onto the cumulative span generated by the audit class, thereby explicitly characterizing the function space on which multicalibration is achieved. We further derive convergence rates under different smoothness assumptions, finite-sample guarantees, and principled stopping rules that ensure multicalibration at termination. Finally, we extend the theory of universal adaptability under covariate shift, providing more general transfer guarantees and clarifying when multicalibrated predictors generalize across domains. These results provide a more complete theoretical foundation and practical guidance for multicalibration boosting, positioning it as both a unifying framework and a reliable post-processing approach for modern predictive models.

Time series forecasting drives operational decisions in areas like finance, transportation, and energy. While supervised learning approaches achieve strong performance, they require domain-specific training, feature engineering, and ongoing maintenance. Large-scale foundation models have recently emerged as a zero-shot alternative, avoiding task-specific training much like LLMs. In this work, we evaluate foundation models against standard supervised approaches. Rather than focusing solely on aggregate accuracy, we analyze performance across four operational regimes: periodic human-centric systems, physically constrained processes, stochastic financial markets, and heterogeneous demand forecasting. Our results characterize optimal deployment areas. Foundation models perform well in domains with transferable periodic structures and are efficient for cold-start or long-tail scenarios. Conversely, supervised specialists maintain higher precision in systems governed by strict physical constraints. In financial domains, newer foundation models are rapidly closing the performance gap with supervised specialists. We further quantify trade-offs in inference latency, data drift adaptability, and deployment constraints. Finally, we propose a Complexity Router that assigns each series to the optimal model class using empirical features. We demonstrate that this selective routing achieves higher accuracy and significantly lower inference costs compared to deploying a universal foundation model, providing a practical framework for balancing generalization and efficiency.

We study a stochastic multi-armed bandit problem where an agent is granted a free exploration budget before regret accumulates, a setting not captured by the classic regret minimization or pure exploration paradigms. The goal is to design an adaptive policy that strategically explores the bandit instance in the initial free exploration phase and minimizes the cumulative regret in the subsequent phase. We formalize this regret minimization with free exploration problem and identify an interesting regime where the free exploration budget scales logarithmically with the time horizon. To quantify the amount of regret saved with high probability as a result of the availability of the free exploration phase, we introduce a novel set of policies known as $(α,β)$-probably saving policies. We propose a two-phase, probably saving algorithm, UFE-KLUCB-H, which consists of a principled free exploration policy, UFE, and a history-aware regret minimization policy KLUCB-H. Instance-dependent upper bounds on UFE-KLUCB-H are derived, showing that UFE-KLUCB-H accumulates strictly less regret than policies that do not have access to a free exploration phase. Complementarily, we derive instance-dependent lower bounds based on novel multi-instance perturbation arguments tailored to the free-exploration setting, demonstrating the near-optimality of UFE-KLUCB-H for two-valued bandits. Our upper and lower bounds reveal sharp phase transitions in the accumulated regret depending on the amount of available free exploration. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate that forced exploration and adaptivity in the algorithm lead to greater regret savings.

We introduce a new measure of robustness for statistical estimators, which we call \emph{empirical sensitivity}. An estimator $\hat θ$ has bounded empirical sensitivity if, with high probability over a dataset $X = (X_1, \dots, X_n) \sim \mathcal{D}^{\otimes n}$, for any dataset $Y$ obtained by modifying at most $ηn$ points in $X$, we have that $\hat θ(Y)$ is close to $\hat θ(X)$. We study bounds on this quantity for the prototypical problem of Gaussian mean estimation. We prove new lower bounds, showing that for any estimator $\hat μ$ which achieves an optimal $\ell_2$-error bound of $O\left(\sqrt{d/n}\right)$, the empirical sensitivity is at least $Ω\left(η+ \sqrt{ηd/n}\right)$. The two terms arise due to obstructions on the mean and variance (via an Efron-Stein argument) of such an estimator. We show that this bound is tight up to logarithmic factors, by employing recent results for robust empirical mean estimation.